UAE President Warned Netanyahu of "Sinwar's Earthquake" Before Oct. 7 Attack

UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed directly warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about an impending "earthquake and unprecedented surprise" planned by Hamas leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, about a week and a half before the October 7th attacks. The warning, delivered during a 45-minute secret phone call, was reportedly downplayed by Netanyahu, who believed any action would be limited to the West Bank. He allegedly failed to inform the heads of the Shin Bet, Mossad, and the IDF of the warning, missing an opportunity to prevent the attack.

The revelations come from a new book, "Hostages: 843 Days of Neglect," by journalists Shlomi Eldar and Rot Yuval, with a report on the book published in the newspaper Haaretz. The book details that in the final days of September 2023, amid escalating violence in the West Bank and regular Palestinian demonstrations at the Gaza border fence, Netanyahu was alerted by bin Zayed. The UAE president expressed grave concern that Sinwar was preparing a major move that would not only cause bloodshed but also destabilize the entire region and harm the Abraham Accords.

According to Haaretz, three senior foreign sources were briefed on the conversation, which is being revealed for the first time based on extensive research. Israeli President Isaac Herzog also confirmed bin Zayed's significant concern, stating that the UAE president had frequently conveyed messages about the need to de-escalate the situation in the region in the months leading up to the war. Bin Zayed reportedly sent a special envoy to Israel who met with Netanyahu, conveying a sense that the region was on the verge of an explosion.

A close advisor to bin Zayed, a Palestinian who emigrated from Gaza, also participated in the call and relayed bin Zayed's assessment that Sinwar was preparing a significant event. The advisor urged Netanyahu to be prepared and suggested economic solutions for Gaza and de-escalation in the West Bank to prevent escalation. Netanyahu's response was reportedly calm, suggesting Hamas's actions would be confined to the West Bank and assuring bin Zayed of Israel's readiness.

Bin Zayed later shared his concerns with CIA Director William Burns, who also conveyed to Netanyahu that "something is about to explode." The article also sheds light on parallel, secret negotiations between Israel and Hamas, facilitated by a Fatah official, concerning a long-term truce and economic arrangements for Gaza. These talks, which began in early 2023, stalled over the issue of prisoner exchanges, with Netanyahu repeatedly delaying a decision by a ministerial committee, possibly due to fear of leaks or backlash from his far-right coalition partners.

By early September 2023, Sinwar reportedly cut off all communication, having grown impatient with Israel's delays. On September 23rd, Sinwar met with the Fatah official and issued a stark warning: "Tell the Israelis that I am preparing a big surprise for them if they do not advance. Expect an earthquake." This message was relayed through intermediaries to bin Zayed, who recognized the gravity of the threat and promptly informed Netanyahu. A security meeting was held on September 17th, where intelligence suggested Sinwar might be planning to capture an Israeli researcher to increase leverage for prisoner releases.