Netanyahu Received Warnings on Hamas Attack Plans Before Oct. 7, Report Claims

A new investigation, coinciding with the release of a book by journalists Shlomi Eldar and Ruth Yuval, alleges that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu received direct warnings about a major Hamas operation planned by Yahya Sinwar, the then-leader of Hamas in Gaza, about a week and a half before the October 7, 2023, attack. The investigation, published by the newspaper Haaretz, states that in early September 2023, during indirect Israeli contacts with Hamas regarding a deal for the release of four Israelis held in Gaza, along with the bodies of soldiers Hadar Goldin and Oron Shaul, and detainees Hisham al-Sayed and Avraham Mengistu, Sinwar suddenly disappeared from Shin Bet radar as negotiations stalled.

According to the investigation's account, Sinwar contacted a Palestinian figure linked to Fatah, informing him of plans for a "big surprise" if negotiations did not progress. Eldar reported that Sinwar used the word "earthquake" to describe his plans in one conversation, later repeating the message and requesting it be conveyed to the Israeli side. On September 15, then-Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar received this information and relayed it to Netanyahu, the investigation claims.

The report further suggests that Netanyahu later spoke with UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed via a private channel to confirm the warning had reached the Israeli premier. During this approximately 45-minute conversation, according to Eldar, Netanyahu attempted to reassure bin Zayed, stating, "We are ready in Gaza," and assessing that the primary threat originated from the West Bank. The investigation indicates Netanyahu did not share the details of this conversation with then-IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, or Mossad chief David Barnea.

Additionally, the Israeli Prime Minister's office reportedly received another warning around the same period from then-Egyptian Intelligence Minister Abbas Kamel, who cautioned of an "exceptional event and a huge operation" by Hamas. Journalist Smadar Peri had previously reported in the early days of the war that Egypt had warned Israel of a serious Hamas move before October 7, with Netanyahu responding that Israel controlled the situation in Gaza and the main concern was the West Bank.

Security officials interviewed for the investigation believe that if the security agencies had been aware of the warnings Netanyahu received, their assessment of the intelligence prior to October 7 might have changed. One Shin Bet official suggested that knowing about these warnings could have helped explain Sinwar's sudden disappearance from de-escalation talks and potentially led to a different conclusion about Hamas's intentions. The Prime Minister's office has vehemently denied the report's claims, calling the assertion about a warning from the UAE president "absolute lies" and stating Netanyahu did not speak with bin Zayed during the specified period or receive any warning from him. Both Ronen Bar and Herzi Halevi stated they were unaware of the alleged warning from the UAE president. The investigation reopens the debate about the warnings preceding the October 7 attack and whether information reaching the political leadership was fully conveyed to the security apparatus.