UAE President Warned Netanyahu of Sinwar's Plot Before Oct. 7

UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about a week and a half before the October 7th Hamas attacks that Yahya Sinwar was planning a significant move that could ignite the Middle East, according to a report by Haaretz. Bin Zayed reportedly urged Netanyahu to prepare for the threat, but the Prime Minister responded with relative calm, assessing that Hamas intended to act in the West Bank and assuring the UAE leader that Israel was prepared for any scenario. The conversation between Netanyahu and bin Zayed lasted 45 minutes, during which the UAE President expressed concern that the planned event would not only cause bloodshed but also destabilize the entire region and harm the Abraham Accords.

Despite the urgent warning, Netanyahu did not update Israeli security chiefs about the conversation. However, the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) reportedly received a similar warning in mid-September 2023 regarding Sinwar's intentions. Shin Bet officials interpreted this warning as potentially related to the Israeli researcher Elizabeth Tsurkov, who had been abducted in Iraq, and stressed the need to take it seriously, noting a potential lack of Israeli deterrence. Discussions within the Shin Bet about potential responses, such as powerful strikes in Gaza or increased defenses, did not result in concrete decisions.

Further complicating the narrative, Haaretz reported that Sinwar had secretly conveyed a message to Israel days before October 7th stating that "prisons in Israel will soon shake." Israeli officials understood this as relating to prisoners but did not interpret it as a warning of an impending attack, instead believing it concerned Sinwar's potential acquisition of Tsurkov and a subsequent demand for prisoner releases. The Prime Minister's office has vehemently denied the report, stating, "An absolute lie! Prime Minister Netanyahu did not speak with the President of the United Arab Emirates during the period in question and did not receive any warning from him."

Following the report, opposition leaders, including former Prime Ministers Naftali Bennett and Benny Gantz, as well as members of the "October 7th Council," criticized Netanyahu. They accused him of ignoring serious warnings, failing to update security officials, and being responsible for the intelligence failures leading up to the attack. They called for an immediate and thorough investigation and the establishment of a state commission of inquiry.