24 hoursLOW
3%
Low
chance of a wide siren wave, next 24h
1 hour
<1%
24 hours
3%
7 days
13%
30 days
36%
why this numberlog-odds
- ▼No wide waves in the last week
- ▼No siren waves of any size in the last 24 hours
- ▼No wide waves in the last 30 days
- ▲2 siren waves of any size in the last week
- ▲Gaza: concrete threat or preparations reported
- ▲Iran: threats in general terms
arenas on the wireread 19:00
Iran2rhetoric · 125 stories / 24h · 652 / 7d
Lebanon1quiet · 22 stories / 24h · 276 / 7d
Yemen1quiet · 17 stories / 24h · 255 / 7d
Gaza3concrete · 286 stories / 24h · 1341 / 7d
HFC posture0unchanged
levels: quiet · rhetoric · concrete threat · imminent · under way, read hourly from the last 24h of coverage. story counts are how much the wire wrote, not the threat.
prediction marketspolymarket
24h trend3% – 27%
base rate
0 wide waves / 30d
last wide wave
106d ago · 458 localities
track record
24h number +0% vs base rate over 147 scored forecasts