Mamad forecast
The chance of a siren wave
Over the next hour, day, week and month, from three years of Home Front Command alerts and the last 24 hours of the news. Rewritten every ten minutes.
Not a warning system. When a siren sounds, follow the Home Front Command.
6%LowChance of a wide siren wave
Next hour<1%
24 hours6%
7 days14%
30 days33%
- No wide waves in the last week
- No siren waves of any size in the last 24 hours
- No wide waves in the last 30 days
- Lebanon: attack declared imminent
- 1 siren wave of any size in the last week
- Yemen: threats in general terms
What the news says
IranRhetoric · 146 reports
GazaQuiet · 328 reports
LebanonImminent · 87 reports
YemenRhetoric · 32 reports
Home FrontInstructions unchanged
No wide wave in the last 30 daysThe last one was 129 days ago, across 458 localities.
How the forecast has done3,380 forecasts for the next 24 hours have been checked against what happened. A skill score appears once a wave has occurred inside the scoring window.
How the number is madeWhat prediction markets say
The forecast lives in the baba News app too, with an alert when the level steps up.