24 hoursLOW
5%
Low
chance of a wide siren wave, next 24h
1 hour
<1%
24 hours
5%
7 days
12%
30 days
29%
why this numberlog-odds
- ▼No wide waves in the last week
- ▼No siren waves of any size in the last 24 hours
- ▼No wide waves in the last 30 days
- ▲Iran: concrete threat or preparations reported
- ▲Gaza: concrete threat or preparations reported
- ▼No wide waves in the last 3 days
arenas on the wireread 06:00
Iran3concrete · 204 stories / 24h · 1151 / 7d
Lebanon1quiet · 54 stories / 24h · 366 / 7d
Yemen1quiet · 9 stories / 24h · 125 / 7d
Gaza3concrete · 130 stories / 24h · 1137 / 7d
HFC posture0unchanged
levels: quiet · rhetoric · concrete threat · imminent · under way, read hourly from the last 24h of coverage. story counts are how much the wire wrote, not the threat.
prediction marketspolymarket
24h trend4% – 7%
base rate
0 wide waves / 30d
last wide wave
137d ago · 458 localities
track record
24h number +0% vs base rate over 4158 scored forecasts