Polls 40 Days Before Election Show Shifting Alliances and Uncertain Outcomes

With 40 days remaining until the next election, recent polling data suggests significant shifts in the political landscape, challenging traditional predictions. Analysis of past elections indicates that polls conducted around this timeframe have proven remarkably accurate, particularly in predicting bloc strengths. For instance, in the 2022 elections, pollster Kamil Fuchs accurately forecast 31 mandates for Likud, 24 for Yesh Atid, and 13 for the Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit parties, closely mirroring the final results. Similarly, in the 2021 elections, Fuchs's prediction of 58 mandates for the right-wing bloc, which ultimately secured 59, was also highly accurate, with the difference largely attributed to the late shift of Naftali Bennett's party.

A recent poll published by Channel 13 News reveals a notable surge for Benny Gantz's National Unity party, projected to win 22 mandates. In contrast, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party has hit a historic low in the polls, securing only 18 mandates. Despite Likud's decline, Netanyahu's bloc is projected to hold a slight advantage with 54 mandates compared to Gantz's bloc, which garners 52 mandates. Arab parties collectively hold 14 mandates.

Other parties show mixed results. Naftali Bennett's 'Together' party has weakened, dropping to 12 mandates, while Yair Golan's 'Democrats' remain stable with 10 mandates. The union of Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism and Moshe Feiglin's Zehut party is projected to receive 8 mandates, the same number as Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit, Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu, and the Joint List. United Torah Judaism and Shas are each expected to win 7 mandates. Ofer Winter's 'Am Yisrael' party is making a strong showing with 6 mandates, as is Ra'am led by Mansour Abbas.

Parties falling below the electoral threshold include Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha's list, and the Haredi Public party. Notably, Benny Gantz's Blue and White party is experiencing a significant slump, receiving less than 1% of the vote and failing to cross the threshold.