Israeli Election Polls Show Shifting Support 40 Days Out

Two new polls released Thursday, just 40 days before Israel's general election, reveal significant shifts in projected Knesset seat allocations, particularly concerning the nascent "Am Israel" party led by Ofer Winter. A Direct Polls survey for i24NEWS shows "Am Israel" gaining one seat to reach five, while Otzma Yehudit, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, drops from eight to seven seats. However, a separate poll by Channel 14 News indicates "Am Israel" would not pass the electoral threshold at all, despite a slight increase in its percentage of support. Discrepancies also emerged regarding the "Yisrael Beiteinu" party, led by Gadi Eisenkot, with both polls showing it losing a seat compared to previous surveys from the same polling firms. In the i24NEWS poll, the Likud party remained stable at 27 seats, while "Yisrael Beiteinu" fell from 22 to 21. Naftali Bennett's "Yamina" party also declined by one seat, from 10 to 9, while the Democratic Party gained one to reach 10, and Yisrael Beiteinu increased from 7 to 8 seats. The Channel 14 poll showed Likud gaining a seat to 31, with "Yisrael Beiteinu" dropping to 20. "Yamina" rose from 8 to 9, Yisrael Beiteinu from 6 to 7, the Democratic Party fell from 9 to 8, and Religious Zionism and Zehut dropped from 8 to 7. The i24NEWS poll projected a full breakdown of 120 seats as: Likud 27, "Yisrael Beiteinu" 21, Democratic Party 10, "Yamina" 9, Yisrael Beiteinu and United Torah Judaism 8 each, Otzma Yehudit, the Joint List, and Shas 7 each, Religious Zionism and Zehut 6 each, and Ra'am and "Am Israel" 5 each. Despite internal shifts, the overall bloc distribution remained unchanged from the previous week: 60 seats for a potential coalition, 48 for the opposition, and 12 for Arab parties. The Channel 14 poll projected Likud at 31 seats, "Yisrael Beiteinu" at 20, Shas at 10, "Yamina" at 9, United Torah Judaism and the Democratic Party at 8 each, Religious Zionism, Zehut, the Joint List, and Yisrael Beiteinu at 7 each, and Ra'am at 5. This poll also showed bloc distribution unchanged: 64 seats for the right, 44 for the left, and 12 for Arab parties. These diverging results follow a week of unusual poll variations across various outlets. In head-to-head matchups for Prime Minister in the Channel 14 poll, Benjamin Netanyahu garnered 55% support, a four-point increase, while Gadi Eisenkot dropped six points to 29%. Naftali Bennett received 11%, and Avigdor Lieberman remained at 5%. A direct Netanyahu-Eisenkot matchup in the same poll showed Netanyahu leading 57% to 43%. The i24NEWS poll was conducted by Direct Polls on September 17th among 519 respondents, with a margin of error of 4.2%. The Channel 14 poll was conducted by NEXT DATA on September 17th with 817 adult respondents.