New Poll Shows Likud Declining, Netanyahu's Bloc Stable

A new "Maariv" poll released Friday indicates a continued decline for the Likud party, dropping to 18 Knesset seats from 19 in the previous survey. Despite this dip, the coalition bloc remains stable with 50 seats. This stability is partly attributed to the return of Ofer Winter's "Am Israel" party above the electoral threshold, securing 4 seats, and a gain for Religious Zionism-Identity, which increased from 5 to 6 seats.

Conversely, Benny Gantz's National Unity party weakened by two seats, falling from 25 to 23, though it remains the largest single party in the poll. "Yachad" decreased from 14 to 13 seats, and "Democrats" from 10 to 9.

The full seat distribution shows National Unity with 23 seats, Likud with 18, Yachad with 13, Democrats with 9, Yisrael Beiteinu with 9, Otzma Yehudit with 8, United Torah Judaism with 7, Shas with 7, the Joint List with 7, Religious Zionism-Identity with 6, Ra'am with 5, Am Israel with 4, and the United Reservists and Economic lists led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zehவுகளை each receiving 4 seats.

Among the Haredi parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism each hold 7 seats, totaling 14 for the bloc. The "Am Israel" list, representing reservists and economists, crossed the electoral threshold with 4 seats, though both this list and another small list are close to the 3.25% threshold.

The opposition, excluding Hendel and Zehவுகளை's parties, totals 54 seats, while Arab parties maintain 12 seats. In head-to-head matchups for Prime Minister, Gantz leads Netanyahu 48% to 40%, narrowing the gap. Naftali Bennett also leads Netanyahu 44% to 41%, while Netanyahu holds a slight edge over Avigdor Lieberman, 42% to 38%.

The poll also surveyed public opinion on Israeli aid to Saudi Arabia against the Houthis. 54% of respondents favor assisting Saudi Arabia, with 38% conditioning aid on a normalization agreement and 16% supporting it without immediate political return. 26% oppose the aid, and 20% were undecided. The survey was conducted by Lazar Research on September 16-17, with a sample of 600 respondents out of 4,089, yielding a 15% response rate and a maximum margin of error of 4%.