New Poll Shows Netanyahu Bloc Edging Ahead of Opposition in Israeli Politics

A new poll released by Kantar Institute for Israel Hayom newspaper indicates a tightening race between the two main blocs in Israeli politics, just 40 days before the general election. The "Yesh" party, led by Gadi Eisenkot, has seen its support decline by two seats, now polling at 22 mandates, down from 24 in the previous survey. Conversely, the bloc supporting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has gained two mandates, reaching 55, while the opposition bloc stands at 56. The Likud party, led by Netanyahu, is polling at 20 mandates. Other parties include Naftali Bennett's Yamina with 13, Shas with 10, the Democrats with 9, United Torah Judaism and Yisrael Beiteinu each with 8, Otzma Yehudit with 7, and Religious Zionism with 6.

A significant development highlighted in the poll is the performance of Ofer Winter's "Am Israel" party, which is polling at 4 mandates, nearing the electoral threshold. Israel Hayom's analysis suggests Winter's party is drawing support primarily from the Likud, contributing to its drop to 20 mandates, but also potentially increasing the overall right-wing bloc's vote share by attracting voters who might not otherwise have supported existing parties. This presents a dilemma for Netanyahu, as securing a majority may require engaging with Winter's new support base.

The poll also underscores ongoing public disputes regarding leadership within the opposition bloc. Eisenkot, whose party holds the most mandates among the opposition, insists on being recognized as the natural leader, citing his party's size. However, Bennett and Liberman reportedly do not view mandate numbers as the sole determinant of leadership, with Eisenkot allegedly being referred to as a "political rookie" in private discussions. The possibility of a minority government, should neither bloc secure the required 61 mandates, is also a point of contention.

This latest survey follows a similar poll by News 13 from the previous evening, which also showed a narrow lead for Netanyahu's bloc over the opposition, 54 to 52 mandates. In that poll, Eisenkot's party garnered 22 mandates, Likud received 18, and Winter's party secured 6. While Eisenkot's party consistently polls higher than Likud individually, the bloc-level numbers indicate a closely contested election.