US and Israel Drafted Detailed Plans for Strikes on Iran Post-US Midterms

The United States and Israel have developed detailed plans to resume attacks on Iran following the US midterm elections, scheduled for November 3. According to the New York Times, citing American officials and sources familiar with the discussions, preparations are underway for a "short and intense" military operation. This operation would likely target nuclear facilities, energy infrastructure, and missile and drone systems.

Some US officials believe a three-day intensive strike could inflict enough economic damage to compel Iran to make concessions in negotiations. However, other officials indicated that attacks on oil refineries and related infrastructure would be avoided to prevent further fuel price increases, a concern for President Donald Trump. In response, Iranian officials have threatened to target data centers and undersea internet cables if confronted, warning that any conflict would "not be short."

The New York Times reported that no American decision to launch an attack has been made yet. This comes after the Financial Times reported that the Israeli military had prepared for several days of fighting with Iran about a week and a half prior, but Trump opposed resuming hostilities before the midterms, halting the plan. The previously planned Israeli strike reportedly included targeting civilian infrastructure in Iran, such as power plants and nuclear facilities.

Political analyst Viman Salehi suggested that Iran's retaliation plans could include striking major oil refineries in Saudi Arabia, including Aramco facilities, which would cause a sharp, immediate rise in oil and energy prices. Separately, Axios reported that dozens of Israeli Air Force fighter jets conducted an operational flight reaching near Iran's borders three days prior, according to Israeli and American officials. This flight, approximately 1,300 kilometers from Israel, occurred a week before the US elections and on the same day US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Netanyahu and Hegseth also discussed options for attacking Iran during their meeting. Concurrently, following Netanyahu's statements about Tehran's nuclear ambitions and reports that Trump had thwarted an Israeli strike, Reuters cited US officials stating the State Department intends to evacuate some diplomatic staff and their families from Saudi Arabia due to concerns about renewed fighting, particularly with the Houthis in Yemen.

In a related development, NBC reported that the US military has covertly reduced its troop presence at bases across the Middle East in recent days. The State Department also ordered further staff reductions at several diplomatic missions in the region. US officials indicated these steps resemble previous troop and diplomatic staff reductions before the February conflict with Iran and are a response to ongoing threats in the region, including those from Iran. US soldiers have reportedly been evacuated from bases in Jordan, Qatar, and Kuwait, among other countries. Israeli and US officials told Axios that the recent large-scale Israeli air sortie was intended as a deterrent to Iran and not an exceptional event, though they acknowledged the risk of miscalculation. The flight path simulated an attack on Iran, crossing Syrian and Iraqi airspace before turning back near the Iranian border. Israel had informed the US of the operation, describing it as a drill to demonstrate strength and deter Iran from attacking Israel before the elections. However, some US sources felt Israel might have hoped Iran would retaliate, providing a pretext for strikes.