US and Israel Plan Retaliatory Strikes on Iran Post-Midterms

The New York Times reported, citing U.S. officials, that the United States and Israel have developed detailed plans for renewed military strikes against Iran following the U.S. midterm elections. These potential strikes are envisioned as a short, intensive operation being rapidly prepared. Joint military drills between the two nations have intensified, including simulated offensive air sorties over Iraq. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth visited Israel this week to discuss the potential military plans with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Targets are expected to include Iran's energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile and drone storage sites.

Despite military preparations, questions linger about the effectiveness of new strikes compared to previous engagements between February and April, which contributed to global energy price hikes and depleted U.S. interceptor missile stockpiles. President Donald Trump's stance on resuming attacks remains undecided, as he has reportedly opposed several plans for intensified combat this year, including one slated for the current month. U.S. diplomats are attempting to leverage the threat of military escalation to pressure Tehran into nuclear concessions, but these efforts have yielded no significant progress.

Iranian officials have threatened to broaden their response to any renewed conflict, potentially targeting data centers and undersea internet cables in addition to commercial vessels. The report also noted that Majtaba Khamenei, the new Supreme Leader of Iran, remains an enigma to intelligence agencies. Israeli political considerations, including the upcoming October 27 elections, may also influence the timing of any operation. Experts suggest that a potential loss for Netanyahu could limit his ability to initiate a new war as head of a caretaker government, though he might use the military threat to push opponents into an emergency government.

Potential plans include targeting Iran's nuclear program facilities, such as the underground Koh-e-Kolang facility. Trump is reportedly considering the use of a massive 10,000-kilogram bomb, known as the "mother of all bombs," though weapons experts doubt its efficacy against facilities buried in granite. Amid concerns of regional escalation, the U.S. State Department recently ordered non-essential government personnel to leave Saudi Arabia. Iran has also threatened Saudi oil refineries, which could impact global energy prices. The U.S. is preparing for a significant military deployment by early November, including aircraft carriers and thousands of troops, while its final decision on resuming strikes remains uncertain.