US and Israel Plan Iran Strikes Post-Midterm Elections, Sources Say

The United States and Israel have developed detailed plans for renewed strikes against Iran, to be potentially carried out after the upcoming US midterm elections, according to American officials and individuals familiar with the discussions. Both militaries are reportedly preparing for a brief, intensive operation targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, energy infrastructure, and missile and drone sites. However, President Donald Trump has canceled planned strikes against Iran multiple times this year, including as recently as this month. Senior security officials from both nations indicated that the US and Israel were close to an attack earlier in November, but Trump again opted to postpone the operation at the last minute, shortly before it was scheduled to commence after extensive preparations and heightened air force readiness.

The repeated planning efforts, followed by Trump's decisions to avoid new attacks, have caused daily turmoil among military planners, one commander stated anonymously. Forces are striving to remain prepared for any military option the President might decide upon in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, the possibility of renewed strikes against Iran, coordinated with the US, has reportedly created tension in Israel between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the IDF leadership. The military has expressed reservations about an attack at this time, fearing it could impact the ongoing Knesset election campaign or even lead to its postponement. Nevertheless, Netanyahu is simultaneously pressuring both the US administration and Israeli security chiefs to advance the possibility of a renewed offensive later on.

Some US officials believe a powerful new round of strikes could inflict economic damage on Iran, compelling it to compromise in negotiations. Others suggest a three-day intensive campaign might cause sufficient economic harm to alter Iran's stance. Conversely, US officials estimate that numerous political reasons, including Trump's own pledge not to attack before Election Day, contribute to his expected delay until after the midterms. Additionally, the full deployment of US military assets, including three aircraft carriers, thousands of Marines, fighter jets, and special forces, is not expected until early November. The military itself prefers attacking under the cover of darkness, which will last longer next month. There is also concern about escalation into a wider conflict.

Amidst these developments, the US State Department ordered non-essential government personnel and their families to leave Saudi Arabia due to ongoing Houthi attacks. A White House official stated the administration does not comment on military plans, adding that Trump is keeping all options open to ensure Iran does not obtain nuclear weapons. Some officials noted that strikes would avoid oil refineries and petroleum infrastructure, as Trump is keen to prevent further increases in fuel prices. In Iran, officials have vowed retaliation against the US by expanding their target list beyond commercial ships and Middle Eastern energy infrastructure to include data centers and undersea internet cables, asserting that any conflict would not be short or limited.

Concurrently, US diplomatic engagement with Iran continues, with mediators using the threat of renewed war as leverage to achieve progress on demands concerning Iran's nuclear program and control of the Strait of Hormuz. Mehdi Mohammadi, a senior advisor to the head of the Iranian negotiation team, General Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, recently dismissed the idea of a 72-hour US strike campaign as a "fantasy," asserting that Iran would dictate the war's end. He recalled Trump's February statement that a war would last two weeks, adding that Iran's attacks would be "fierce, creative, and different," with strong plans already formulated.