New Poll Shows Two Parties Surpassing Threshold After Candidate Lists Close

A new poll by Channel 12 News, conducted after the deadline for submitting candidate lists for the 26th Knesset, indicates that both Ofir Winter's and Bezalel Smotrich's parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold, a shift from previous surveys. The "Yashar" party led by Gadi Eisenkot remains the largest faction with 25 seats, unchanged from the prior poll. The Likud party, headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, is predicted to receive 21 seats, while Naftali Bennett's "Bayit Yehudi" garners 13.

Yair Golan's "The Democrats" are projected to weaken to 10 seats, whereas Avigdor Lieberman's "Yisrael Beiteinu" strengthens to 9 seats. United Torah Judaism is expected to secure 8 seats, the Joint List 7, and Shas 7 seats. Smotrich's "Religious Zionism and Identity" party is forecast to lose one seat, ending up with 5, while Ofir Winter's "Am Israel" party gains one seat to also reach 5. Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, is projected to receive 4 seats.

Parties falling below the electoral threshold include "HaMiluimnikim" and "HaKalkalit HaHadasha" (The New Economic) with 2.9%, Benny Gantz's "Blue and White" with 1.4%, "HaTzibur HaHaredi" with 1%, "Yisrael Tfila" with 0.3%, and "Noam L'Yisrael" with 0.2%.

The bloc map remains consistent with the previous poll. The current coalition parties are projected to win a combined 52 seats, while opposition parties are expected to secure 68 seats. Of the opposition seats, 57 are attributed to Zionist parties and 11 to Arab parties.