New Poll Shows Netanyahu Bloc Far From Majority After Candidate Lists Close

A new poll released Wednesday, one day after the deadline for submitting candidate lists for the upcoming Knesset elections, indicates that the "Amcha Yisrael" party, led by Ofir Winter, would surpass the electoral threshold and win four seats. Despite this new party's entry into the Knesset, the bloc supporting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, along with Winter's party, would still fall short of a majority, reaching only 51 seats.

The "Yashar!" list headed by Gadi Eisenkot emerges as the largest party in the poll with 25 seats, while the Likud party garners 21 seats. Naftali Bennett's "Bichad" party receives 14 mandates. Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu and Yair Golan's Democrats each secure 9 seats. Otzma Yehudit, United Torah Judaism, Shas, and the Joint List all receive 7 seats. The unified list of Religious Zionism and Identity wins 5 seats, as does Ra'am.

"Amcha Yisrael" closes the list of parties clearing the electoral threshold with 4 seats and 3.5% of the vote. Conversely, the "Miluimnikim VehaKalkalit" list, led by Yoaz Hendel and Professor Yaron Ze'ev, remains outside the Knesset with 2.8%. Other lists failing to pass the threshold include "Achai" with 1.1%, Benny Gantz's Blue and White with 0.9%, "HaTzibur HaCharedi" with 0.2%, and "Noam LeYisrael" with 0.2%.

In terms of blocs, Netanyahu's bloc plus Winter's party totals 51 seats. The bloc of opposition parties receives 57 seats, and Arab parties collectively win 12 seats. The poll was conducted on September 9 for Walla by Lazar Research, led by Dr. Menachem Lazar, in collaboration with the online respondent panel Panel4All. It surveyed 506 adult respondents, with a maximum margin of error of 4.4%.