Polls Show Ofer Winter's Party Near Knesset Threshold After Candidate List Deadline

Following the deadline for submitting Knesset candidate lists, recent polls present a mixed picture for the new party led by former IDF General Ofer Winter and the Religious Zionism party headed by Bezalel Smotrich. In polls conducted by Channel 11, I24NEWS, and Channel 13, Winter's party is shown surpassing the electoral threshold, securing 4 seats in the Knesset. However, a Channel 14 poll indicates the party falls short of the threshold.

Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism party generally receives 6 seats across most surveys, with one poll from Channel 11 showing it with 5 seats. The Likud party, after recent candidate placements, shows varying results: 21 seats in the Channel 11 poll, 19 in Channel 13, 27 in I24NEWS, and a high of 31 in the Channel 14 poll.

The overall bloc picture is divided, with two polls showing an even split and one indicating a significant advantage for the bloc supporting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Channel 13's poll shows a perfect 53-53 tie between the blocs. Channel 11 also reports a tie at 52 seats each, though the party led by Hillel Halkin and Yifat Zeligman was not assigned to any bloc in this survey. In contrast, Channel 14's poll gives Netanyahu's bloc a substantial lead with 64 seats compared to 44 for the opposition bloc. Analysts suggest the discrepancy in bloc results is partly due to differing projections on whether Winter's party will cross the electoral threshold.