Poll Shows New Party Surpasses Threshold, Key Figures Miss Knesset Cut

A new poll released Wednesday, one day after the deadline for submitting Knesset lists, indicates significant shifts among smaller parties vying to cross the electoral threshold. The "Am Israel" party, led by Ofer Winter, has gained momentum, securing 3.5% of the vote and qualifying for four Knesset seats. Conversely, the "Reservists and Economists" list, headed by Yoaz Hendel and Professor Yaron Zelicha, failed to pass the threshold with only 2.8% support.

In the overall seat distribution, "Yashar!" led by Gadi Eisenkot remains the largest party with 25 mandates. The Likud party follows with 21 seats. Naftali Bennett's "Achdut" party is projected to receive 14 mandates, while Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu and Yair Golan's Democrats each garnered 9 seats.

Other parties projected to enter the Knesset include Otzma Yehudit (Itamar Ben-Gvir), United Torah Judaism (Yaakov Asher), Shas (Aryeh Deri), and the Joint List (Hadash-Ta'al and Balad), each with 7 seats. The United Religious Zionism and Identity list (Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin) and Ra'am (Mansour Abbas) are each expected to win 5 seats, with "Am Israel" rounding out the list at 4 seats.

Bloc calculations show the current Netanyahu coalition, including Winter's party, would hold 51 mandates. The Zionist opposition bloc would secure 57 seats, and Arab parties would collectively receive 12 mandates.

Several lists fell short of the 3.25% electoral threshold, including "Reservists and Economists" (2.8%), "Ahi" (Rabbi Aberjil, 1.1%), Blue and White (Benny Gantz, 0.9%), "Haredi Public" (0.2%), and "Noam L'Yisrael" (0.2%). The poll was conducted by Lazar Research on September 9, 2026, surveying 506 respondents.