New Poll Shows Benny Gantz's Party Leading Netanyahu, Potentially Forming Government

A new public opinion poll in Israel indicates that the bloc led by former IDF Chief of Staff and "Yashar" party leader Benny Gantz could secure 61 seats, enough to form a government. The poll, published by "Maariv," suggests that the bloc of parties opposing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would win 57 seats, potentially reaching 61 if the "Hendel-Zelicha" alliance joins them. This alliance, which has not yet declared its allegiance, is projected to win 4 seats.

In contrast, Netanyahu's coalition has seen a decline, dropping four seats to a total of 47 according to the poll, which was conducted before the finalization of electoral lists. The "Yashar" party has gained two seats following the submission of its electoral list, while the "B'Yachad" alliance, led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and including current opposition leader Yair Lapid, has lost two seats, now holding 13.

The poll also shows the three-way Arab joint list, comprising the Democratic Front for Peace and Equality, the National Democratic Assembly, and the Arab Movement for Change, maintaining its strength with 7 seats. The United List secured 5 seats, bringing the total projected representation for Arab parties to 12.

The alliance combining Yoaz Hendel, who led the "Reservists" party, and economist Professor Yaron Zelekha, along with "Amcha Israel" led by former officer Ofer Winter, is hovering around the electoral threshold. Any minor shift could significantly alter the electoral map, as their success in crossing the threshold could reshape the political landscape. Winter had previously announced his intention to join Netanyahu's bloc.

Seat projections for individual parties are as follows: "Yashar" 25, "Likud" 20, "B'Yachad" 13, "Democrats" (Labor-Meretz alliance) 10, "Yisrael Beiteinu" 9, "Otzma Yehudit" 8, "United Torah Judaism" 7, "Shas" 7, the Arab joint list 7, the United List 5, "Religious Zionism" 5, and the Hendel-Zelicha alliance 4.

Parties that did not cross the electoral threshold include "Amcha Israel" (2.8%), "The Haredi Public" led by Moti Leitner, and "Blue and White" led by Benny Gantz. The poll was conducted by Lazar Research Institute and Panel4ALL on September 7-8, with 600 out of 4,052 surveyed individuals responding, and a margin of error of 4%.