New Poll Reveals Shifting Voter Allegiances Ahead of Elections

A recent Channel 12 News poll indicates significant shifts in voter patterns, with the "Otzma Yehudit" party, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, attracting the largest share of first-time voters. The "Am Israel" party, headed by Ofer Winter, is drawing almost all its support from voters who previously backed parties aligned with Benjamin Netanyahu.

Among the findings, 16% of voters intending to support Gadi Eisenkot's "Yashr" party previously voted for the Likud in the 2022 elections. Similarly, 13% of voters for Naftali Bennett's "Bayit Yehudi" party also voted Likud in 2022. Otzma Yehudit benefits from 37% of voters who were part of the joint list of Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich in the previous election, with an additional 13% of its current voters having previously supported the Likud.

Interestingly, 15% of Ben-Gvir's current supporters voted for Shas in 2022, and 8% indicated they voted for Yair Lapid. The poll also noted that 18% of Otzma Yehudit's support comes from first-time voters, the highest proportion among all parties.

Ofer Winter's "Am Israel" party, which did not run in the previous election, is seeing nearly all its potential voters coming from the Netanyahu bloc. Specifically, 48% previously voted for Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, and 44% for the Likud. Another 5% voted for Ayelet Shaked, and 3% were non-voters.

For Bennett's "Bayit Yehudi" party, 44% of its support comes from Yesh Atid voters, a result of the previous alliance between Bennett and Lapid. An additional 18% come from voters of the National Unity party (Gantz, Eisenkot, Sa'ar), and 13% from Labor and Meretz voters. Notably, 13% of Bennett's voters previously voted Likud. Only 3% of "Bayit Yehudi" voters are new voters.

The survey, conducted by Midgam Consulting and Research, sampled 504 respondents and has a maximum margin of error of 4.4%.