Ofer Winter’s New Party Shakes Up Israeli Political Landscape, Religious Zionism Falls Below Threshold

A new poll published by Maariv on Friday reveals significant shifts in the Israeli political scene following the entry of Ofer Winter’s new party, "Amcha Yisrael." The party is projected to win five Knesset seats, causing the Religious Zionism party, led by Bezalel Smotrich, to fall below the electoral threshold with only 3% support. This marks a major setback for Smotrich, who loses five seats due to Winter’s emergence.

Other parties show minor changes: Gadi Eizenkot’s Yisrael party drops one seat to 25, while Naftali Bennett’s Yachd together party gains one seat, rising to 15. Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu falls from 10 to 9 seats, and Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit loses one seat, now holding eight. The Joint List, led by Yousef Jabareen, gains two seats, increasing from six to eight, boosting the total number of Arab party seats to 13 when combined with Mansour Abbas’s Ra’am, which remains steady at five.

Likud, under Benjamin Netanyahu, remains stable at 20 seats, as do the Democrats led by Yair Golan with 10 seats. Shas and United Torah Judaism maintain their positions with seven and eight seats respectively. The overall non-coalition bloc stands at 43 seats, or 48 if including Winter’s party, slightly down from last week. The Zionist opposition holds 59 seats, also down by one.

Regarding leadership suitability, Gadi Eizenkot leads Netanyahu with 48% to 37%, though the gap has narrowed slightly. Naftali Bennett also leads Netanyahu with 45% to 40%. Against Avigdor Lieberman, Netanyahu trails by 3%, with 40% favoring Netanyahu and 37% Lieberman.

The poll also highlights public dissatisfaction with Israel’s public education system, with 74% expressing discontent, up from 70% in August 2023. Only 18% are satisfied. Additionally, 62% of parents are concerned about the infiltration of values and content into schools that conflict with their beliefs, a concern shared across political lines, particularly among Arab party voters (80%) and opposition supporters (61%). Among Jewish Israelis, secular parents are most worried (72%), while religious parents are less concerned (41%).