Ofer Winter's New Party Surpasses Threshold, Weakening Smotrich and Shifting Right-Wing Map

A new Walla poll published on August 26, 2026, reveals that Ofer Winter's party "Amcha Israel" has crossed the electoral threshold for the first time, securing six Knesset seats. This emergence significantly impacts the right-wing bloc, primarily at the expense of the Religious Zionism party led by Bezalel Smotrich, which falls below the threshold with only 2.6% support. The poll also shows Gilad Erdan's "Unity" party far below the threshold at 0.3%.

The leading party in the poll is "Yashar!" headed by Gadi Eizenkot with 25 seats, followed by Likud under Benjamin Netanyahu with 21 seats, and "Together" led by Naftali Bennett with 15 seats. The Democratic party under Yair Golan receives 10 seats, Israel Beytenu under Avigdor Lieberman 9 seats, Otzma Yehudit led by Itamar Ben-Gvir 8 seats, and both Shas and United Torah Judaism 7 seats each. Arab parties Hadash-Ta'al-Balad hold 7 seats, and Ra'am 5 seats.

In bloc terms, Netanyahu's right-wing coalition stands at 43 seats, the Zionist opposition at 59, and Arab parties at 12. Winter's party is not affiliated with any bloc in the poll; even if it joins Netanyahu's bloc post-election, the right-wing coalition would reach only 49 seats. Dr. Menachem Lazar, who conducted the poll with Panel4All, suggested Winter's support draws not only from Smotrich's base but also from other right-wing parties and previously undecided voters. The survey sampled 500 respondents out of 3,189 contacted, representing Israeli adults 18 and older, with a maximum sampling error of 4.4%.