Professor Asher Cohen Says Winter’s Party Could Shift Right-Wing Votes, But Polls Will Decide

Professor Asher Cohen, a political researcher specializing in religious Zionism and the right-wing camp, discussed the potential impact of Ofer Winter’s new party, Amcha Israel, on the upcoming elections. Cohen emphasized that the critical factor will be the results of the imminent polls, which will influence right-wing voters’ decisions. Many right-wing voters may hesitate to support a party that risks falling below the electoral threshold, and even polls showing Winter’s party with four seats might be met with skepticism.

Cohen rejected conspiracy theories suggesting left-wing media might inflate Winter’s poll numbers to split the right-wing vote, explaining that the real influence depends on clear trends in the final polls before candidate lists close. He noted that some right-wing voters are searching for alternatives to Likud and Smotrich, and if Winter’s party can secure enough seats from this pool, it could be significant, though certainty is impossible.

Addressing claims that Winter is aligned with Avigdor Lieberman or not truly right-wing, Cohen stated that Winter and his top candidates are identified with the right. Regarding a possible technical bloc alliance between Winter’s party and the religious Zionist camp to surpass the threshold, Cohen said this is a recurring discussion but might conflict with Winter’s goal to present his party as representing all of Israel, not just religious Zionism.

Cohen contrasted Winter’s situation with that of Itamar Ben-Gvir, who successfully broadened his party’s appeal beyond the religious Zionist label. Winter’s list includes three religious Zionist figures, making it harder to shed that identity, especially if he allies with the religious Zionist party. With less than two weeks until candidate lists close, Winter remains the only serious new right-wing contender, with some polls granting him four seats. Cohen cautioned that polling margins of error could still cause a party polling near the threshold to fail to enter the Knesset.