Ofer Winter Affirms Right-Wing Alignment as New Party Threatens Coalition Stability

Ofer Winter, a former military official, is preparing to launch a new political party that could reshape Israel's right-wing bloc ahead of upcoming elections. According to a recent poll published on August 18, 2026, Winter's independent run risks pushing Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism party below the electoral threshold, while Winter himself also falls short of crossing it. Despite this, Winter's support nearly matches Smotrich's, marking a significant personal achievement.

Winter has clarified in private discussions that he considers himself part of the right-wing camp and is willing to help Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu secure a parliamentary majority if possible. His party launch is imminent, and he plans to present a candidate list soon. Netanyahu faces the challenge of uniting right-wing factions and preventing a potential loss of five Knesset seats indicated by the poll.

The survey also highlights that opposition parties generally enjoy double-digit support, whereas within the coalition, only Likud reaches that level. Analysts suggest Netanyahu may attempt to unite Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, though Ben-Gvir's demands for ministerial positions could complicate negotiations. Meanwhile, parties led by Gideon Sa'ar, Yoaz Hendel, Hili Tropper, and Benny Gantz appear to be losing votes from a public seeking change, collectively risking four to five seats.

Tropper has hinted at possible significant alliances soon, but skepticism remains. Sa'ar claims his voters come mostly from the coalition, with some from the opposition, but all represent a desire for change. Smaller parties not captured in polls could also influence final results. The election is framed as a choice between continuing the current government or pursuing reform, leaving little room for compromise or centrist options.