Poll Suggests Ofer Winter Could Shake Up Israel’s Coalition Math

A new poll by Dudi Hasid and Kantar, obtained by Israel Hayom, portrays reserve Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter as a potential political kingmaker. In the survey, a solo run by Winter would win 5 seats, a notable result in a political landscape where right-wing blocs often fall short of a 61-seat majority.

The report says this makes Winter especially significant for Benjamin Netanyahu, whose camp is frequently unable to secure the 61st mandate needed to form a government without outside support. Political observers quoted in the article say Winter, who is identified with the Religious Zionist and conservative right-wing publics, could be the figure who resolves Netanyahu’s bloc problem and gives him the majority to build a coalition.

The same poll also tested several other potential alliances around parties and figures near the electoral threshold. A partnership between former UN ambassador Gilad Erdan, former minister Yoaz Hendel and reservist groups was measured at 7 seats. A joint list of former prime minister Benny Gantz, former Fire and Rescue commissioner Dedi Simchi and economist Prof. Yaron Zelekha reached 6 seats.

Another combination, Yoaz Hendel with Hili Tropper and the Fourth Quarter movement, was projected at 5 seats. The article notes that most of these centrist-right figures say they want a broad Zionist unity government and have no intention of giving Netanyahu the 61st seat for a narrow right-wing coalition, which only increases Winter’s possible importance as a deciding factor.