Poll Shows Netanyahu-Led Party Would Win 16 Seats, Splitting Likud Support

A recent "Maariv" poll conducted by Lazar Research reveals that coalition party voters are less certain about voting in the upcoming Knesset elections compared to opposition Zionist and Arab party supporters. Overall, 74% of respondents said they are sure they will vote, 17% said they probably will, 3% said they likely will not, and 6% remain undecided. Among opposition Zionist voters, 80% are certain to vote, while 82% of Arab party voters express similar certainty. Coalition voters show lower certainty at 72%.

The poll indicates shifts within the coalition bloc, with Religious Zionism rising to five seats and United Torah Judaism increasing to eight seats. Meanwhile, Likud drops to 21 seats, as does Otzma Yehudit at eight. In the Zionist opposition bloc, "Together" gains a seat to 19, "Yisrael Beiteinu" led by Avigdor Lieberman falls to 10 seats, and "Yesh Atid" drops to 20 seats. Among Arab parties, Ra'am rises to five seats, while Hadash-Ta'al remains at six. Overall, Netanyahu's coalition holds 50 seats, the Zionist opposition 59, and Arab parties 11.

The poll also explored a scenario where Netanyahu leaves Likud to lead an independent party. In this case, his new party would receive 16 seats, becoming the second largest after "Yesh Atid" and "Together," each with 20 seats. Likud without Netanyahu would shrink to seven seats. Combined, the two parties would have 23 seats, three more than Likud currently holds, but the split would weaken the coalition bloc to 49 seats versus 60 for the Zionist opposition and 11 for Arab parties.

Regarding post-election government formation, most Israelis are skeptical about a unity government bridging the political divide: 35% see a slim chance, 27% see no chance, 14% believe it likely, and 24% are unsure. Additionally, on the 1,000-day mark since the war, 44% feel the country is heading in the wrong direction, 27% think it is on the right path, and 29% are undecided.