Bennett's Party Gains as Netanyahu's Likud Weakens, Opposition Loses Ground in New Poll

A new Maariv poll published on Friday reveals a shift in Israel's political landscape ahead of upcoming elections. Naftali Bennett's party, "Together," has stopped its decline and gained one seat, rising to 19 mandates. Meanwhile, Gadi Eizenkot's "Straight" party and Avigdor Lieberman's "Yisrael Beiteinu" each lost one seat, now holding 20 and 10 mandates respectively. Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party also weakened by one seat, dropping to 21 mandates, alongside Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit, which fell to 8 mandates.

Within the coalition bloc, "United Torah Judaism" led by Yitzhak Goldknopf and "Religious Zionism" under Bezalel Smotrich each gained one seat, standing at 8 and 5 mandates respectively. Shas, headed by Aryeh Deri, remained stable at 8 mandates. The Democrats, led by Yair Golan, maintained 10 mandates, while Mansour Abbas's Ra'am increased by one seat to 5 mandates. Overall, the coalition holds steady at 50 mandates, the opposition dropped one to 59, and Arab parties rose by one to 11 mandates.

The poll also explored public opinion on the possibility of forming a unity government bridging both sides. A majority of Israelis (35%) see only a slim chance of such a government, while 27% believe it is impossible. Only 14% think there is a high chance, and 24% are unsure. Coalition voters are more optimistic about this scenario (20%) compared to opposition voters (12%).

Regarding voter turnout, 74% of Israelis said they will definitely vote in the next Knesset elections, 17% probably will, and 3% remain undecided. Opposition voters showed higher certainty (80%) than coalition supporters (72%).

The poll also tested a hypothetical scenario where Netanyahu leaves Likud to form a new party. In this case, Netanyahu's new party would secure 16 mandates, becoming the second largest after "Together" and "Straight," each with 20 mandates. Likud without Netanyahu would drop to 7 mandates. Combined, Netanyahu's new party and Likud would hold 23 mandates, three more than Likud currently has. However, this split would weaken the coalition bloc to 49 mandates, while the Zionist opposition would rise to 60 mandates and Arab parties to 11.

These findings highlight ongoing volatility in Israeli politics and the challenges facing coalition formation ahead of the elections.