Survey Shows Netanyahu and Eizenkot Tied as Leading Parties, Bennett and Lapid Weaken

A Channel 12 poll published on Monday reveals that if elections were held today, the Likud party led by Benjamin Netanyahu and the Yisrael party headed by Gadi Eizenkot would each secure 23 seats, making them the two largest parties in Israel. The third largest party, Yachad, continues to decline, dropping one seat to 16 mandates. The Democratic Party ranks fourth with 10 seats.

Further down the list, Israel Beiteinu and Otzma Yehudit each receive 9 seats, Shas falls by one seat to 8, and United Torah Judaism strengthens to 8 seats. At the lower end, Hadash-Ta'al gains one seat to 6, the Religious Zionist Party remains above the threshold with 4 seats, and Ra'am declines to 4 seats. Parties below the electoral threshold include Blue and White (1%), The Reservists (1%), and Balad (0.7%).

The bloc distribution remains unchanged, with the Zionist opposition holding 58 seats and the current coalition 52. Following a breakdown in talks between Blue and White leader Benny Gantz and The Reservists leader Yoaz Hendel, the poll tested a joint list scenario under Gantz and Dedi Simchi, which fails to cross the threshold but increases opposition seats by one. In this scenario, Eizenkot’s party strengthens to 24 seats, becoming the largest, while Likud drops to 22.

Another scenario examined a new party formed by Yuli Edelstein, Gilad Erdan, Benny Gantz, Hili Tropper, Yoaz Hendel, and Ayelet Shaked, which would win 6 seats. This would weaken Likud and Yisrael to 22 seats each and Yachad to 14. Neither bloc could form a government even if the new party joined them, with opposition at 64 seats (54 Zionist, 10 Arab) and coalition at 50.

Regarding leadership preferences, Eizenkot leads Netanyahu 38% to 37% for prime minister, while Netanyahu leads Bennett 38% to 34%, and leads Lieberman 37% to 25%. Among coalition voters, 21% consider voting for a non-coalition party due to recent legislative initiatives. Only 51% say they vote for the party that best represents them, while 47% admit they lack a better alternative. A strong consensus remains on the right against a government supported by Arab parties, with 87% expressing concern and only 12% not worried.