Likud and Yisrael Beytenu Tie in New Poll as No Bloc Can Form Government

A new poll conducted by Channel 12 News reveals a historic tie between Likud, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, and Yisrael Beytenu, led by Gadi Eizenkot, each securing 23 seats if elections were held today. This marks the first time Eizenkot's party matches Likud's strength amid his rising popularity. The third-largest party is Yamina, headed by Naftali Bennett, which has weakened to 16 seats. The Democratic camp, led by Yair Golan, holds 10 seats, followed by Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beytenu and Otzma Yehudit with 9 seats each. Shas and United Torah Judaism have 8 seats apiece, while the Joint List and Religious Zionism hold 6 and 4 seats respectively. Ra'am also holds 4 seats, with Blue and White, the Reservists' Party, and Balad falling below the electoral threshold.

The overall bloc distribution remains unchanged, with the Zionist opposition at 58 seats and the current coalition at 52, leaving neither side able to form a government independently. A hypothetical joint list of Blue and White and the Reservists' Party fails to cross the threshold, slightly increasing the opposition to 69 seats but still preventing government formation. Another scenario involving a new party formed by Yuli Edelstein, Gilad Erdan, Benny Gantz, Yoaz Hendel, and Ayelet Shaked would gain 6 seats but still not enable either bloc to govern alone.

Regarding leadership preferences, Eizenkot slightly leads Netanyahu for prime minister suitability, 38% to 37%, while Netanyahu leads Bennett and Lieberman by wider margins. Notably, 21% of coalition voters consider switching to non-coalition parties due to recent legislative initiatives. Additionally, 87% of coalition voters express concern over forming a government that includes Arab parties.

The poll was conducted on July 6, 2026, by Meno Geva's Consulting and Research, sampling 503 respondents with a margin of error of ±4.4%. Data collection combined internet and telephone methods using stratified random sampling.