Gadi Eizenkot Matches Likud in Polls, Shifting Focus from Bennett to Netanyahu

A recent News 12 poll reveals a political shift in Israel, with Gadi Eizenkot's party, Yisrael, tying with Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud at 23 seats each for the first time. Until now, Eizenkot's main competition was with Naftali Bennett's Yesh Atid, which continues to decline, dropping to 16 seats. This development signals Eizenkot's growing ambition to become the largest party in the Knesset and a central alternative to Netanyahu, not just within the anti-Netanyahu bloc but in the broader political landscape.

The poll also highlights the critical role of smaller parties, which could prevent either bloc from reaching the 61-seat majority needed to form a government. Attempts to unite various factions, including a hypothetical "new party" combining figures like Yuli Edelstein, Gilad Erdan, Benny Gantz, and others, would only yield six seats, insufficient to change the overall balance. This fragmentation underscores the ongoing struggle among smaller parties to surpass the electoral threshold and influence coalition formation.

The opposition bloc, led by Bennett and Yair Lapid, continues to lose ground, with a seven-seat gap now separating Bennett from Eizenkot. Meanwhile, the current coalition holds 52 seats, and the Zionist opposition bloc totals 58, leaving the political map largely unchanged. Notably, a joint run by Gantz and Smotrich fails to cross the threshold, garnering only 1.9% of the vote, which paradoxically weakens Netanyahu's bloc.

The poll also reflects public uncertainty regarding recent legislative moves by Netanyahu's coalition, particularly agreements with ultra-Orthodox parties on military exemptions and judicial reforms. Voters await the outcomes of second and third readings of these laws to gauge their real impact. Netanyahu himself reportedly hopes for a clearer recovery in support, but the data shows no such trend yet.

Overall, the poll suggests a political environment marked by fragmentation and shifting alliances, with Eizenkot emerging as a significant contender against both Bennett and Netanyahu, while smaller parties play a decisive role in determining the next government.