Likud and Yisrael Beytenu Tie at 23 Seats Each in Latest Israeli Election Poll

A new Channel 12 poll published on Monday shows that if elections were held today, the Likud party led by Benjamin Netanyahu and Yisrael Beytenu led by Gadi Eizenkot would each secure 23 seats, making them the two largest parties in Israel. Likud gained one seat compared to last week’s poll, while Yisrael Beytenu maintained its strength. Otzma Yehudit and Shas each lost one seat, dropping to seven seats, whereas the Religious Zionist Party gained one seat to reach five. United Torah Judaism remains steady at eight seats, and the Democratic Camp holds ten seats. Hadash-Ta'al and Ra'am each receive five seats, and the party of Hili Tropper and Yoaz Hendel passes the electoral threshold with four seats. Blue and White and Balad fall below the threshold with 1.4% and 0.8%, respectively.

The anti-Netanyahu bloc holds 70 seats, including 60 from Zionist opposition parties and 10 from Arab parties, while the coalition parties have 50 seats. A hypothetical scenario combining Hadash, Ta'al, and Balad into a joint list and Yoav Segalovitz joining Ra'am would shift one seat from Zionist opposition parties to Arab parties but not change the overall bloc balance.

Regarding leadership preferences, Netanyahu and Eizenkot are tied at 37% each for prime minister suitability. Netanyahu leads over Naftali Bennett (38% to 37%) and Avigdor Lieberman (38% to 27%). Public opinion on Defense Minister Yoav Gallant is divided, with 34% rating him positively and 57% negatively, and 52% believe his actions are politically motivated. Nearly half (47%) consider the dismissal of Central Command Chief Avi Blot unjustified.

On security perceptions post-October 7 attacks, 36% say Israel’s security situation worsened, 35% say it improved, and 23% see no change. A majority (62%) do not believe Netanyahu has led Israel to victory after three years of conflict. Eizenkot is viewed as the most trusted coalition leader on security (30%), followed by Bennett (17%) and Lieberman (13%).

Most Israelis (62%) doubt Israel will ever achieve a "complete victory" in Gaza, and 72% do not believe Hamas will disarm. Regarding the ceasefire agreement with Lebanon, 63% are skeptical it will lead to peace or Hezbollah disarmament. On Iran, 35% think Netanyahu’s war efforts have reduced the threat, while 27% believe it has increased. A majority (51%) support resuming war with Iran, including 74% of coalition voters.