New poll shows Netanyahu’s Likud ahead, Bennett-Lapid alliance slipping

In the bloc count, the current coalition gets 53 seats, the opposition led by Eisenkot gets 57, and the Arab parties have 10. If there were a political union under Eisenkot’s leadership, his party would surge to 37 seats while Likud would stay at 23, putting the opposition at 58 and the coalition at 52. A merger among the Arab parties would leave the opposition at 58, reduce the coalition to 50, and raise the Arab bloc to 12.

Among Arab citizens, 51% say they intend to vote in the election, while 49% say they do not. In a head-to-head matchup, 43% think Eisenkot is more suitable for prime minister and 39% prefer Netanyahu. In a Netanyahu-Bennett race, Netanyahu leads 44% to 41%. In an Eisenkot-Bennett matchup, Eisenkot gets 42% and Bennett 21%.

The poll also found that after the US agreement with Iran, 42% of the public now say President Donald Trump is bad for Israel, 21% say he is good for Israel, and 37% do not know. Trust in Trump has also dropped, from 72% six months ago saying he was the most Israel-friendly president ever to 54% now. On the Lebanon ceasefire, 48% say Israel should not comply, 37% say it should, and 15% are unsure.

The survey was conducted by HaMada, Stat-Net, The Sample Project and Askaria, with consulting by Prof. David Steinberg.