Polls Show Netanyahu Edges Ahead as Eisenkot Gains and Bennett Slips

Two Israeli television polls released Wednesday night paint a fluid political picture ahead of the next election. In the Kan News survey, Likud rises to 24 seats, Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar! climbs to 22, and Naftali Bennett’s Yachad falls to 16. The Democrats and Otzma Yehudit get 9 seats each, Shas 8, United Torah Judaism 7, Hadash-Ta’al 6, Religious Zionism 5, and Ra’am 4. The reservists party, Blue and White, and Balad are below the electoral threshold.

The same poll says that if Bennett and Yair Lapid split, Bennett would get 14 seats while Lapid would drop to 4. If Benny Gantz joined forces with Yoaz Hendel and Dadi Shami, the united list would win 7 seats, but still would not decide the balance between the blocs. The coalition bloc would stand at 53 seats, one more than last week.

Kan also tested public views of a reported deal between Benjamin Netanyahu and the ultra Orthodox parties, under which they would agree on an election date and in return pass laws favorable to the religious parties. Fifty two percent oppose the deal, 23% support it, and 25% do not know. On who should lead the opposition bloc, 40% chose Eisenkot, 16% Bennett, 27% said neither, and 17% were unsure.

A separate Channel 13 poll puts Likud at 23 seats and Eisenkot’s party at 20, with the Bennett Lapid list down to 15. Yisrael Beiteinu gets 12, the Democrats 10, Otzma Yehudit 9, Shas and United Torah Judaism 8 each, Hadash-Ta’al 6, Religious Zionism 5, and Ra’am 4, while Blue and White, Balad, and the reservists remain below the threshold. In bloc terms, the current coalition has 53 seats, Eisenkot’s opposition bloc 57, and the Arab parties 10. If Eisenkot led a broader unity arrangement, his list would surge to 37 seats, the coalition would fall to 52, and the opposition would rise to 58.

The Channel 13 poll also found that 51% of Arab citizens say they plan to vote, compared with 49% who do not. In head-to-head scenarios for prime minister, Eisenkot leads Netanyahu 43% to 39%, Netanyahu leads Bennett 44% to 41%, and Eisenkot leads Bennett 42% to 21%. Regarding Donald Trump, 42% say he is bad for Israel, 21% say good, and 37% do not know; trust in him has fallen from 72% six months ago to 54% now. On the Lebanon ceasefire, 48% say Israel should not comply, 37% say it should, and 15% are unsure.