Poll Analyst Says Bennett’s Early Comeback Backfired as Netanyahu Gains

Ahead of a new seat poll due later Thursday on Channel 14, political analyst Shlomo Filber told the morning show "Israel Morning" with host Tal Meir that Benjamin Netanyahu is benefiting from current political shifts, while Naftali Bennett is losing support after returning to politics too early.

Filber dismissed public talk of a split between National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich as a temporary tactic. "It will change in the end, because, as last time, the one who will bang their heads together is Netanyahu," he said, arguing that Netanyahu manages the bloc and will not allow it to endanger right-wing rule. He added, "To Ben Gvir’s right there is only a wall," saying any voters leaving Ben Gvir would at most move to Smotrich or Likud, not to the opposition.

Turning to the center-left camp, Filber said Bennett is acting with the "restlessness typical of him under pressure" and accused him of rushing back into politics without a long-term strategy. "It all starts with a big mistake he made in the middle of 2024," Filber said. He claimed Bennett believed opposition claims that the government was about to fall, feared missing his chance, and entered the race too early, making it hard to sustain momentum for a year and a half.

Filber said Bennett failed to deliver on his two main promises, to bring in right-wing voters and defeat Netanyahu without Arab support, and that his voters are now shifting to Gadi Eisenkot, whom they see as a more natural choice. He rejected polling theories that suggest direct transfers from Likud to Eisenkot, saying the movement is really a three-seat bloc that left Likud at the start of the 2023 protest wave, moved to Benny Gantz, then Bennett, and is now drifting to Eisenkot. Filber said the broader trend still favors Netanyahu, especially because many Israelis support the government’s assertive security policy, the return of Donald Trump to the White House, and Netanyahu’s refusal to withdraw from Lebanon before Israel’s war goals are met.