Poll: Gantz-Hendel-Shmihi Alliance Clears Threshold as Only 18% Say Israel Beat Iran

A new Channel 12 poll, aired Thursday in the main evening newscast and published June 25, 2026 at 21:04, shows Likud gaining one seat to 23 and remaining the largest party. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yesh! stays at 21 seats, while Naftali Bennett’s Yachad slips one seat to 18. Yair Golan’s Democrats are fourth with 10 seats, followed by Shas, Otzma Yehudit and Yisrael Beiteinu with 9 each, and United Torah Judaism with 7.

At the bottom, Hadash-Ta’al rises to 6 seats, Ra’am falls to 4, and Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism remains just above the threshold with 4. Below the cutoff are Blue and White under Benny Gantz at 1.8%, Balad under Sami Abu Shehadeh at 1.7%, and the Reservists under Yoaz Hendel at 1.6%. The bloc count gives the coalition 52 seats and the opposition, including the Arab parties, 68.

The poll tested a joint run by Blue and White, the Reservists and Dedi Shmihi, and found such a list would pass the threshold with 5 seats, taking votes from both blocs. In that scenario, the coalition would drop to 50 seats and the opposition, excluding the Arab parties, would have 55. Under that arrangement, Likud would fall to 21, Yesh! to 20, and Yachad to 17.

The survey also asked about a joint Bennett-Eisenkot list. If Bennett led it, the slate would win 34 seats and shift one seat to the coalition bloc. If Eisenkot led, it would win 39 seats with no bloc movement. In the preferred prime minister matchup, Eisenkot again edges Benjamin Netanyahu, 38% to 36%, while Netanyahu leads Bennett 39% to 31% and Yisrael Beiteinu leader Avigdor Lieberman 38% to 25%.

On Iran, only 18% said Israel won the campaign, compared with 43% who said Iran won and 29% who did not know. A majority, 62%, oppose the reported deal between Netanyahu and the ultra-Orthodox parties, while 23% support it. Asked whether Israel should strike Beirut again despite President Donald Trump’s opposition, 54% said yes and 27% said no. On the latest Iran round, 52% said Israel should have launched it, while 32% said it should not have done so, including 80% support among coalition voters. The poll was conducted by Midgam Consulting and Research, led by Mano Geva, on June 25, 2026, with 504 respondents, a maximum margin of error of 4.4%.