Polls show Likud ahead, while potential alliances could reshape the race

With elections expected after the Jewish holidays, Israeli polling is tracking shifting voter sentiment, and two surveys released Wednesday showed notable movement among the main parties.

In a Channel 13 poll, Likud would win 23 seats if an election were held today. Gadi Eisenkot’s party would come second with 20 seats, while the Bennett-Lapid joint list would continue to weaken and fall to 15. Yisrael Beytenu would get 12 seats, the Democrats 10, Otzma Yehudit 9, Shas and United Torah Judaism 8 each, Hadash-Ta'al 6, Religious Zionism 5, and Mansour Abbas’s Ra'am 4. Blue and White, Balad and the Reservists would remain below the electoral threshold.

The same poll found that if Eisenkot’s camp merged under his leadership, it would surge to 37 seats, while Likud would stay at 23. A merger of the Arab parties would lift them to 12 seats.

In a separate Kan News poll, Likud would get 24 seats, Eisenkot’s Yesh! list 22, and Bennett’s Beyachad party 16. The Democrats and Otzma Yehudit would each win 9 seats, Shas 8, United Torah Judaism 7, Hadash-Ta'al 6, Religious Zionism 5, and Ra'am 4, with the Reservists, Blue and White and Balad below the threshold. The poll also found that if Bennett and Lapid split, Bennett would get 14 seats and Lapid just 4. A joint run by Benny Gantz, Yoaz Hendel and Dadi Shimi would win 7 seats.