Poll Shows Ofir Winter's Independent Run Could Exclude Smotrich's Party from Knesset

A recent poll conducted by the Midgam Institute for Channel 12 News reveals that if Ofir Winter leads an independent party, he would fail to pass the electoral threshold, potentially causing the Religious Zionism party to also miss out on Knesset representation. The poll indicates that if elections were held today, the "Yashar!" party would secure 24 seats, Likud 22, and the "Together" party of Bennett and Lapid 15. Other parties include The Democrats with 11 seats, Yisrael Beiteinu 10, United Torah Judaism 8, Otzma Yehudit 8, Shas 7, Religious Zionism 5, Hadash-Ta'al 5, and Ra'am 5. Smaller parties such as Balad (1.8%), Gilad Erdan's "The Unity" (1.7%), Zionist Home (1.5%), and Blue and White (1.4%) fall below the threshold.

The right-wing bloc collectively gains 50 seats, while anti-Netanyahu factions hold 60. The poll also explored a scenario where Winter heads an independent right-wing party without alliances. In this case, not only does Winter's party fail to cross the threshold, but it also alters the seat distribution in a way that excludes the Religious Zionism party from the Knesset as well.

This data underscores the potential risks of a split within the right-wing camp, particularly concerning the electoral viability of Religious Zionism and the overall right-wing bloc's strength in the upcoming elections.