Ex-General Ofer Winter’s New Party Weakens Religious Zionism, Boosts Opposition Bloc

A new political scenario involving retired Brigadier General Ofer Winter entering Israeli politics could significantly disrupt the right-wing bloc. A recent Channel 12 News poll conducted by the Midgam Institute shows that Winter’s new party fails to cross the electoral threshold, gaining only 2.5% of the vote. However, this development severely weakens the Religious Zionism party led by Bezalel Smotrich, which also falls below the threshold at 2.7%, leaving both parties out of the Knesset.

Without Winter’s party, Religious Zionism would secure five seats, but his entry splits the right-wing vote, reducing the current coalition bloc to just 47 seats. Meanwhile, opposition parties opposing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gain a commanding 73 seats, including 63 for Zionist opposition parties and 10 for Arab parties. Interestingly, Winter’s candidacy strengthens the two largest parties: Gadi Eizenkot’s "Yashar" party rises to 26 seats, and Netanyahu’s Likud increases to 24 seats.

Other parties in the poll include Naftali Bennett’s "Together" with 16 seats, Yair Golan’s Democrats with 11, Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu with 10, Otzma Yehudit and United Torah Judaism with eight each, and Shas with seven. Arab parties Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am each receive five seats. Parties failing to cross the threshold alongside Winter and Smotrich include Balad, Blue and White, Gilad Erdan’s Unity party, and the Zionist Home of Reservists.

This poll highlights the potential fragmentation within the right-wing camp if Winter runs independently, inadvertently strengthening opposition forces and reshaping the Israeli political landscape ahead of upcoming elections.