Winter’s Party Fails to Pass Threshold, Weakening Smotrich and Shrinking Coalition to 47 Seats

A dramatic new poll by the Madgam Institute, led by Manu Gabbay and published on Monday by Channel 12, reveals significant shifts in Israel's political landscape ahead of upcoming elections. The party "Yashar!" led by Gadi Eizenkot gains one seat, reaching 24 mandates, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party drops to 22 seats. Meanwhile, Naftali Bennett's "Together" party reverses a previous downward trend, gaining one seat to reach 15 mandates.

Among the ultra-Orthodox parties, Yahadut HaTorah remains stable with 8 seats, but Shas, led by Aryeh Deri, declines to 7 seats, marking a notable drop. The Democrats, headed by Yair Golan, rise to 11 seats, and Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu holds steady at 10. Otzma Yehudit, under Itamar Ben-Gvir, strengthens to 8 seats, while Religious Zionism, led by Bezalel Smotrich, maintains 5 seats.

In the Arab sector, Hadash-Ta'al and Ra'am each secure 5 seats. Parties failing to cross the electoral threshold include Beit Tziony, Balad, Gilad Erdan's Right-Wing Party, and Benny Gantz's Blue and White.

A hypothetical scenario involving retired Brigadier General Ofer Winter entering politics as a party leader shows his party failing to pass the electoral threshold. This failure would also drag Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party below the threshold, reducing the coalition to just 47 seats and expanding the opposition to 63 seats, excluding Arab parties. This scenario signals a potential power shift favoring the opposition.

The poll underscores the fragility of the current coalition and the impact new political entrants could have on Israel’s parliamentary balance ahead of the elections.