Political Analyst Yuval Segev Assesses Impact of Ofer Winter’s New Party on Right-Wing Bloc
Translated & summarized from Arutz Sheva by baba
Political analyst Yuval Segev explains that Ofer Winter’s new party targets diverse voters but may siphon votes from the religious Zionist bloc. Netanyahu faces challenges uniting right-wing factions to avoid losing votes below the electoral threshold. Winter’s refusal to ally with incumbent politicians complicates potential mergers, forcing Netanyahu to explore alternative alliances ahead of the election list deadline.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Ofer Winter’s new party appeals broadly but risks splitting religious Zionist votes.
- Polls show Winter’s party passing the threshold with 4-6 mandates, but election outcomes remain uncertain.
- Netanyahu worries about right-wing vote loss if small parties run separately and fail threshold.
- A merger between Winter and Smotrich is unlikely due to conflicting campaign messages.
- Winter’s refusal to join incumbent politicians limits Netanyahu’s options for right-wing alliances.
- Netanyahu may seek other right-wing mergers, including Smotrich with Ben-Gvir or Feiglin.
Political correspondent Yuval Segev analyzed the entry of retired Brigadier General Ofer Winter into Israeli politics with his new party "Amcha Yisrael" in a discussion with Channel 7. Winter’s party aims to appeal to a broad demographic beyond the traditional religious Zionist base, including non-Jewish voters, as reflected in its diverse candidate list featuring figures like Yosef Hadad. Segev noted that while Winter’s party primarily attracts undecided voters, it risks drawing one to two mandates away from the religious Zionist party led by Bezalel Smotrich.
Segev highlighted Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s concerns about the fragmentation of right-wing parties ahead of the elections, fearing that multiple small parties might fail to pass the electoral threshold, resulting in lost votes for the bloc. Polls generally show Winter’s party surpassing the threshold with four to six mandates, but Segev cautioned that such numbers are not guaranteed on election day, citing Moshe Feiglin’s past failure despite strong polling.
The analyst discussed potential strategies Netanyahu might pursue before the candidate list deadline, including possible mergers within the right-wing bloc. However, Segev expressed skepticism about a union between Winter and Smotrich, given Winter’s campaign message of introducing new political figures outside the established system. Such a merger could undermine Winter’s credibility and campaign narrative.
Segev emphasized that Winter’s insistence on not joining forces with incumbent politicians could limit Netanyahu’s options, possibly prompting attempts to reunite Smotrich with Itamar Ben-Gvir or Moshe Feiglin despite their strained relations. Winter’s entrance has already forced right-wing players to reconsider alliances and strategies to minimize vote losses. The key test will be Winter’s willingness to compromise on his principles to form joint lists, which will shape Netanyahu’s path forward in consolidating the right-wing vote.
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