Winter’s Refusal to Join Right-Wing Bloc Sparks Tensions in Netanyahu’s Camp

The refusal of Ofir Winter, a new political figure, to join or merge with existing right-wing parties is causing significant friction within Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition. Winter, who is on the verge of announcing a new party, has made clear to Netanyahu’s team that he does not want to unite or accept reserved spots on other lists, creating a headache for the right-wing bloc. Senior right-wing officials express concern that Winter is not appealing to voters outside the bloc but is instead redistributing votes within it, effectively stalling the coalition’s progress.

Netanyahu’s camp is reportedly planning to politically undermine Winter by preventing him from passing the electoral threshold, thus blocking him from running independently. There are also fears that Winter might eventually ally with centrist figures like Avigdor Lieberman or Naftali Bennett, which would further complicate right-wing unity. Religious Zionist Party leader Bezalel Smotrich has voiced his opposition to Winter’s separate run, warning that such splits could lead to a repeat of the 1992 "Trap 92" scenario, where right-wing vote fragmentation handed victory to the left.

Winter’s team counters that the political landscape has fundamentally changed since the October 7 attacks, and the right-wing electorate will not return to the same parties or faces. They argue that new leadership and fresh players are necessary to prevent figures like Gadi Eisenkot or Yair Golan from gaining security control. Meanwhile, Smotrich emphasizes his openness to alliances but laments that some refuse to engage with existing parties.

Another potential disruptor is Gilad Erdan, whose low polling numbers have Netanyahu’s camp monitoring him closely to prevent him from becoming a significant player. Netanyahu aims to enter the elections with no more than four right-wing lists to maximize surplus vote agreements and minimize risks. He is also working to secure the spot of Minister Avi Dichter, who failed in the primaries, and is seeking additional right-wing figures to strengthen his list.

Netanyahu recently released a video warning against the dangers of small right-wing parties failing to cross the electoral threshold, recalling the 1992 elections when vote splitting led to a left-wing victory and the establishment of Palestinian entities in Gaza and the West Bank. He urged voters not to repeat that mistake, emphasizing that fragmented parties only burn votes and weaken the right-wing bloc. The final deadline for submitting party lists is September 8, by which time the right-wing factions must finalize their arrangements.