Winter Surpasses Threshold, Ousting Smotrich as Opposition Bloc Grows in New Israeli Poll

A new News 12 poll published on August 24, 2026, reveals that the newly formed party led by retired Brigadier General Ofer Winter crosses the electoral threshold with four seats, pushing the Religious Zionism party led by Bezalel Smotrich below the threshold. The poll, conducted after the Likud primaries and Winter's political entry announcement, shows the Yisrael party headed by Gadi Eizenkot leading with 24 seats, followed by Likud under Benjamin Netanyahu with 22 seats.

The opposition bloc, including Zionist parties and Arab parties, grows to 71 seats, while the coalition parties hold 49 seats. Other notable results include Yamina with 15 seats, the Democrats led by Yair Golan with 11, Israel Beytenu under Avigdor Lieberman weakening to 9, Otzma Yehudit led by Itamar Ben-Gvir strengthening to 9, and Shas steady at 7 seats. The Joint List, led by Yosef Jabareen, holds 7 seats, while Ra'am under Mansour Abbas declines to 4 seats.

Smotrich's Religious Zionism drops to 4 seats, below the threshold, alongside other smaller parties such as Beit Tziony HaMiluaim with 2.8%, and the Blue and White alliance under Benny Gantz with 0.4%. The poll also tested scenarios including a merger between Blue and White and the Unity party, with Winter joining Ra'am, which further strengthens the opposition bloc.

Regarding the prime ministerial suitability, Eizenkot leads Netanyahu 44% to 34%, while Yamina's Naftali Bennett leads Netanyahu 39% to 37%. Netanyahu leads Lieberman 35% to 28%, with significant portions of respondents indicating none of the candidates are suitable.

The survey was conducted by Meno Geva's Consulting and Research on August 24, 2026, with a representative sample of 502 respondents aged 18 and over, using internet and telephone methods, and a margin of error of ±4.4%.