Winter Surpasses Threshold, Ousts Smotrich as Opposition Bloc Grows in Israel Poll

A new News 12 poll published on August 24, 2026, reveals significant shifts in Israel's political landscape following recent party primaries and the announcement of retired Brigadier General Ofer Winter entering politics. If elections were held today, the party Yisrael with Gadi Eizenkot would lead with 24 seats, maintaining its strength from previous polls. The Likud, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, would come second with 22 seats, followed by Yachdut with 15 seats under Naftali Bennett.

The Democratic Party led by Yair Golan would hold 11 seats, while Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu would weaken to 9 seats. Otzma Yehudit, headed by Itamar Ben-Gvir, would strengthen to 9 seats, and United Torah Judaism would maintain 8 seats. Shas remains steady at 7 seats, and the Joint List, led by Yousef Jabareen, holds 7 seats. Religious Zionism, led by Bezalel Smotrich, drops to 4 seats, and Ra'am, under Mansour Abbas, also falls to 4 seats.

Winter's new party crosses the electoral threshold with 4 seats, pushing Smotrich's Religious Zionism below the threshold. This change expands the opposition bloc to 71 seats (60 Zionist opposition seats and 11 Arab party seats), while the coalition shrinks to 49 seats. Other smaller parties, including the Zionist Veterans Party and the Unity Party, remain below the threshold.

Regarding prime ministerial suitability, Eizenkot leads Netanyahu with 44% to 34%, while Bennett also leads Netanyahu with 39% to 37%. Netanyahu leads Lieberman 35% to 28%, with a significant portion of respondents indicating neither candidate is suitable.

The poll was conducted by Meno Geva's Consulting and Research on August 24, 2026, using a representative sample of 502 respondents aged 18 and over, with a margin of error of ±4.4%. The survey combined internet and telephone methods.