Ofer Winter’s New Party Enters Knesset, Smotrich Falls Below Threshold in Walla Poll

A recent Walla poll conducted on August 26, 2026, reveals a significant shakeup in Israel’s right-wing political landscape following the entry of Ofer Winter’s new party, "Amcha Israel." The party is projected to secure six Knesset seats, while the Religious Zionism party led by Bezalel Smotrich falls below the electoral threshold with only 2.6% support. This shift disrupts the Netanyahu bloc, which stands at 43 seats, and even with Winter’s party included, it fails to reach the 61-seat majority needed to form a government.

The poll, carried out by Lazar Research Institute and Panel4All, shows the "Yashar" party led by Gadi Eizenkot leading with 25 seats, followed by Likud with 21 seats, and Naftali Bennett’s "Together" party with 15 seats. Other notable results include the Democratic party under Yair Golan with 10 seats, Yisrael Beiteinu led by Avigdor Lieberman with 9, and Otzma Yehudit headed by Itamar Ben-Gvir with 8 seats. Both United Torah Judaism and Shas receive 7 seats each, while the Arab Joint List also holds 7 seats. Mansour Abbas’s Ra’am party is at the bottom with 5 seats.

The poll highlights a deep crisis for Netanyahu’s coalition, which totals only 43 seats. Even if Winter’s party joins the bloc post-election, the combined total would be 49 seats, still short of a governing majority. The survey also indicates a sharp decline in support for Gilad Erdan, who garners only 0.3%, and other smaller parties like the "Zionist Home of Reservists" and the economic party led by Professor Yaron Zelekha fall below the threshold.

Dr. Menachem Lazar, head of the research institute, attributes Smotrich’s drop to Winter’s appeal to a similar voter base, estimating Winter took about one seat from Religious Zionism. Lazar also notes that Winter’s candidacy weakens Erdan’s standing and likely affects Otzma Yehudit and United Torah Judaism. Winter is seen as part of a "third bloc," drawing votes from previously undecided Religious Zionist supporters.

The poll surveyed 3,189 individuals with 500 respondents, representing a statistically valid sample of Israel’s adult population, including Jews and Arabs, with a margin of error of 4.4%.