Key Voter Groups Could Decide Israel's Election Outcome

As Israel approaches an election, polls present conflicting predictions, with most suggesting a "change bloc" majority but not enough for a government. However, a significant divergence exists between pollsters, raising questions about potential repeat elections. Several key demographics and factors could sway the results.

The voting patterns of new immigrants from Russia and Ukraine, numbering over 100,000 since the war began, remain uncertain. This group, representing about three Knesset seats, traditionally leans right, but the prominent Russian-speaking politician is Avigdor Lieberman, a leader of the "change bloc." While Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asserted that Russian-speaking representation would be maintained, including himself, the exact impact of this demographic is unclear.

Another variable is the participation of the 810,000 eligible Israeli voters living abroad. While an initiative aimed to fly them in for the election, the Likud party petitioned against it. Estimates suggest around 67,000 could be in Israel, potentially influencing over a seat, though their voting preferences are not definitively known, with some suggesting a lean towards the "change bloc."

The turnout in Arab communities is also a critical factor. While most will likely vote for Arab parties like the Joint List and Ra'am, a high turnout could complicate government formation for both the Netanyahu and "change" blocs. Lieberman has stated he would not support a minority government backed by Arab parties, meaning increased Arab voter turnout could paradoxically increase the likelihood of repeat elections.

Within the Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) sector, Shas is projected to decline, while United Torah Judaism might see a slight increase. However, internal disputes within Haredi factions and the emergence of smaller parties could suppress turnout, contrasting with previous elections where Haredi cities had exceptionally high participation rates.

Several parties are hovering around the electoral threshold. Ofer Winter's party, despite campaign slogans, is largely polling below the threshold, with pressure from Netanyahu and Bezalel Smotrich for him to withdraw. Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelicha's "Miluimnikim-Kalkalaim" party is also borderline, where a small shift in votes could mean the difference between representation and none.

Finally, increased turnout in liberal cities, driven by the perception of these being crucial elections, could bolster the "change bloc's" support. Conversely, the Netanyahu camp is focusing on traditional Likud strongholds, with Gadi Eisenkot's campaign aiming to reduce turnout among Likud supporters in these areas. The voting behavior of first-time voters, particularly young people who have served in the IDF post-October 7th, is also being closely watched, though analysis suggests religiosity, rather than age, might be a stronger predictor of their leanings.