Traditional Voters' Turnout Key to Upcoming Israeli Elections

The upcoming Israeli elections may hinge on the turnout of the "traditional" voter segment, which constitutes 33% of the adult population. In the 2022 elections, approximately two-thirds of this demographic voted for the Netanyahu bloc. Key questions for the current election are how many traditional voters will switch to other blocs or unaffiliated parties, and crucially, how many will abstain from voting altogether. Coalition parties are reportedly focusing efforts on mobilizing this specific voter group.

The Likud party is the primary political home for traditional voters. Research by Dr. Ariel Finkelshtein from the Israel Democracy Institute indicates that in 2022, 47% of religious traditionalists and 46% of non-religious traditionalists voted for the Likud. The Likud competes for these votes mainly with Otzma Yehudit, which secured 17% of religious traditionalist votes and 12% of non-religious traditionalist votes in the previous election. Shas also competes for religious traditionalist votes, receiving 10% of their support.

Analysis of Likud's 2022 voters shows that 57% identified as traditional, with 64% of those being non-religious traditionalists. In contrast, 43% of voters for the Religious Zionism-Otzma Yehudit list were religious and 37% traditional.

Recent polling suggests a potential decline in support for the Netanyahu bloc among traditional voters. In the previous election, 76% of religious traditionalists voted for the bloc; a recent survey by the Israel Democracy Institute indicates this figure has dropped to 46%, with 15% leaning towards unaffiliated parties and 17% undecided. For non-religious traditionalists, support for the Netanyahu bloc has fallen from 60% in 2022 to 39% in the latest poll, with 9% leaning towards unaffiliated parties and 7% undecided.

Historically, voters from lower socioeconomic backgrounds and peripheral areas in Israel tend to have lower turnout rates, a phenomenon attributed to feelings of despair and a belief that their vote won't make a difference. This trend is observed among traditional voters. While former Likud Chairman Benjamin Netanyahu once claimed a large number of Likud supporters did not vote, analysis suggests many had shifted to other parties, reflecting lower turnout among right-wing voters from disadvantaged areas compared to centrist and left-wing voters from stronger socioeconomic backgrounds.

Turnout rates in development towns and southern cities have seen increases in recent elections, aligning with the rise of the current government, while turnout in affluent central cities remained stable. This suggests that Netanyahu's bloc has found ways to mobilize voters, partly by legitimizing support for parties like Otzma Yehudit, whose more extreme stances may appeal to traditional voters hesitant to vote for Likud alone. However, current disillusionment with government failures in security, draft evasion, and the cost of living may deter even these voters, potentially impacting the Likud's poll numbers.

Pollster Shmuel Rosner notes that higher turnout is expected among Arab citizens and the opposition, with less certainty among coalition supporters. He suggests that if Likud voters opt for shopping over voting, the party could see a decline in its poll standings. The decision to prohibit the transfer of information about who has voted presents a challenge for Likud and Shas. Unpredictable factors like weather can also negatively affect turnout, making voter turnout a significant mystery in these elections.