Key Voter Turnout Numbers Could Sway Israeli Election Outcome
Translated & summarized from Now 14 by baba
With two weeks until the elections, analysts suggest voter turnout, particularly of 400,000 past Likud voters, could be decisive. Current polls showing Likud at 18 seats may not reflect their true potential if supporters turn out. Haredi parties are expected to gain 18+ seats, and the right-wing bloc is predicted to win 61-64 seats, depending on turnout in Haredi and Arab communities.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Approximately 400,000 past Likud voters are a key focus for election turnout.
- Current polls showing Likud at 18 seats may be misleading, analyst Shlomo Filber suggests.
- Haredi parties are predicted to secure 18 or more seats in the upcoming election.
- The right-wing bloc is forecast to win with a majority of 61-64 seats.
- Voter turnout among Haredi and Arab communities will significantly influence the final results.
With two weeks remaining until the elections, political analysts are examining factors beyond current polls that could significantly impact the results. A key focus is the turnout of approximately 400,000 Likud voters from the 2022 election, who may not have abandoned the party but are still within the right-wing bloc. Their participation is crucial for the Likud to achieve its target of around 30 seats, as current poll numbers showing the party at 18 seats are considered potentially misleading and aimed at creating an artificial gap with other parties.
The battle for the largest party within the bloc is expected to influence smaller parties as well. Parties like Winter and Zalicha, which have briefly appeared above the electoral threshold, face the challenge of surviving the competition between Likud and other major parties while voters reassess their options. Even parties like Blue and White, with a conservative and undecided voter base, are not entirely out of the running, as recent polls have shown Benny Gantz's party unexpectedly crossing the threshold.
Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) parties are mobilizing their voters and are already discussing the distribution of political gains, contingent on a right-wing government. The prediction is that these parties will collectively secure 18 mandates or more, with voter turnout being a significant factor. Meanwhile, smaller parties are facing increasing pressure as election day approaches, with the fear of wasted votes potentially leading to withdrawals.
Overall, the prevailing sentiment is that a decisive left-wing victory is unlikely, with discussions focusing on a potential tie or a left-wing coalition relying on Arab parties, possibly leading to further elections. The final outcome, however, will depend on voter turnout across various sectors, including the Haredi and Arab communities, and the ability of each bloc to mobilize its supporters. The prediction remains that the right-wing bloc will win with a majority of 61-64 seats.
