Election Day Strategy: How the Vote and Post-Election Maneuvers Could Shape Israel's Next Government

As Israel approaches the 2026 elections, the political landscape is divided, with the "Change Bloc" appearing organized while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu struggles to consolidate his own faction. However, the outcome after polls close at 10 PM on election day could significantly alter the situation, potentially making government formation difficult for both sides. The Change Bloc, led by Gadi Eisenkot, is currently better positioned organizationally, having secured four parties with surplus agreements and ensuring no party is near the electoral threshold. In contrast, Netanyahu has been engaged in last-minute efforts to persuade smaller parties to withdraw, including meetings with rabbis and advisors, and public criticism of candidates like Yaron Zelicha over gas exploration policies.

Turnout is expected to be a critical factor. Recent polls suggest higher intended voter turnout for the Change Bloc (82%) compared to Netanyahu's bloc (76%). Specific demographics present challenges for Netanyahu, particularly the ultra-Orthodox community, where a potential drop in turnout below 80% could be significant, and the Arab community, where a projected 62% turnout, a notable increase from 2022, could hinder Netanyahu but also complicate government formation for the Change Bloc. Turnout in "Likud cities" is also under scrutiny, with past elections showing varying levels of engagement that impacted the final results.

Once polls close, a new phase of political maneuvering begins. Speculation about post-election events includes a potential Iranian attack immediately after the U.S. midterm elections in early November, which some believe could be exploited by Netanyahu and former President Trump to push for national unity. A major challenge for Netanyahu is the lack of trust from other parties following the October 7th failures, making coalition negotiations difficult. There's even been discussion within his circle about creative, aggressive, or cunning tactics to form a government without a clear electoral victory.

The Change Bloc's internal dynamics are also a concern. While united in their desire to prevent Netanyahu's return, potential leadership challenges, particularly between Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, could emerge if the numbers are close. Yair Golan's decision on whether to back Eisenkot or negotiate for a better deal will be crucial. Internal disputes within the Change Bloc could jeopardize their chance to be the first to receive a mandate to form a government. Bennett's recent statements about potentially revising judicial reforms are seen as a move to attract votes from Eisenkot's base, indicating that the bloc's voters prioritize achieving victory over leadership questions.

Ultimately, the election is expected to be decided by narrow margins, influenced by voter turnout, parties hovering around the electoral threshold, and the post-election strategies employed to form a government, rather than a decisive knockout blow.