Israeli Election Campaign Nears End Amidst Shifting Alliances and Uncertainty

As Israel's election campaign enters its final days, smaller parties hovering near the electoral threshold are playing a pivotal role, with major parties strategically engaging or ignoring them. The outcome remains uncertain, with political maneuvering and potential shifts in alliances dominating the landscape.

U.S. President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a move that could have repercussions for future relations with the U.S. administration. While Netanyahu celebrated the endorsement, the opposition expressed concern that he might leverage it for concessions, such as U.S. approval for an Israeli strike on Iran. However, Trump's support appears limited for now.

Negotiations between Arab parties and the opposition are ongoing regarding post-Knesset swearing-in actions, though consensus within the opposition is lacking. The period for finalizing residual vote agreements has closed, with "Otzma Yehudit" and "Amcha Israel" failing to reach a deal. "Otzma Yehudit" believes "Amcha Israel" will not pass the electoral threshold, while "Amcha Israel" leader Ofer Winter insists on continuing the race, with a final decision pending final polls.

Within the coalition bloc, there is perceived chaos, with efforts to sideline "Amcha Israel" and "A-Tzibur A-Charedi." Prime Minister Netanyahu reportedly met with Moti Leitner of "A-Tzibur A-Charedi," offering positions to withdraw from the race, an offer Leitner refused. Netanyahu's administration is reportedly working to prevent another right-wing party from entering the Knesset, despite Winter's claims of continuing the fight.

The opposition bloc appears more organized, especially after Benny Gantz withdrew his candidacy, easing tensions. All opposition parties have secured residual vote agreements, and their better organization is seen as a potential advantage on election day.

Naftali Bennett's recent statement about potentially repealing judicial reform laws has surprised many, signaling a possible shift in his political stance. Gadi Eisenkot has also adopted a more assertive rhetoric, announcing his intention to abolish the position of minister within the defense ministry, a move that could alter Israeli policy in Judea and Samaria.

Discussions between Arab parties and the Zionist opposition are progressing on plans for scenarios where neither bloc secures a majority. These plans reportedly include replacing the Knesset speaker and passing a law barring indicted individuals from running for prime minister, which would effectively remove Netanyahu from politics. Arab parties are demanding concessions, such as restrictions on demolishing illegal structures in the Arab sector, in exchange for their support.

There is a notable difference in voter enthusiasm between the blocs. The opposition is energized by the prospect of change after four years, while the coalition faces concerns about low turnout, particularly in ultra-Orthodox areas. High voter turnout generally benefits larger parties and diminishes the chances of smaller ones. The Arab vote is significant, with increased participation potentially boosting the opposition, though the dominant support for the "Joint List" over "Ra'am" could complicate this.

The election is scheduled for October 27th.