Election Day Strategy: How the 'Change Bloc' and Netanyahu Prepare for Post-Vote Government Formation

As Israel approaches the 2026 elections, the "Change Bloc" appears more organized than Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc, which is still struggling to consolidate. However, the critical phase begins at 10 PM on election night, when the real challenge of forming a government commences for both sides. The "Change Bloc," led by Gadi Eisenkot, has strategically prepared its four constituent parties with surplus agreements, ensuring none are near the electoral threshold. In contrast, Netanyahu has spent the final days before the election attempting to persuade smaller parties, such as Ofer Winter's "Tzeva Shachor" and "Achi," and the "Haredi Public" party led by Moti Leitner, to withdraw, with little success. Netanyahu has also been actively campaigning against figures like Yaron Zelicha over his opposition to a gas framework.

Turnout is expected to be a decisive factor. Polls indicate higher intended turnout among the "Change Bloc" (82%) compared to Netanyahu's bloc (76%). Significant challenges await Netanyahu in mobilizing the Haredi and Arab communities, as well as in "Likud cities." The Haredi community's voting patterns are uncertain, particularly regarding their stance on Torah scholars' status, with potential shifts to rival parties like "Tzeva Shachor" or even staying home. A drop in Haredi turnout below 80% would be significant. In the Arab community, turnout is projected to be around 62%, a notable increase from 2022, driven by frustration over crime. While a strong Arab vote could hinder Netanyahu, it might also make it harder for the "Change Bloc" to reach the crucial 61-seat majority, even with potential support from Ra'am.

In "Likud cities," turnout in the 2021 elections was around 56-57%, contributing to Netanyahu's loss of power. By 2022, turnout had increased in cities like Dimona and Beersheba, helping the Likud-aligned bloc secure a majority. The urgency for Likud voters to turn out remains to be seen.

Once polls close at 10 PM, a new political game begins. Avigdor Lieberman suggests a potential Iranian attack immediately after the US midterm elections in early November, coinciding with coalition negotiations in Israel, which he believes Netanyahu and Trump might exploit to force national unity. Netanyahu's primary challenge, beyond the "Change Bloc's" rejection following the October 7th failures, is a lack of trust. His past dealings, such as allegedly deceiving Benny Gantz, have made potential partners wary. Proposals, even if not serious, like Netanyahu himself passing legislation to prevent him from serving during a rotation, highlight the perceived need for extreme creativity and aggressive tactics to form a government without a clear electoral victory.

Despite internal rivalries within the "Change Bloc," such as potential leadership challenges between Eisenkot, Naftali Bennett, and Avigdor Lieberman, their primary goal is to deny Netanyahu a mandate. Bennett, who has seen a rise in polls, has declared he would cancel judicial overhaul laws, a move seen as an attempt to draw votes from Eisenkot. Yair Golan has welcomed Bennett's stance, indicating a potential alignment. The "Change Bloc" voters are reportedly more focused on achieving victory than on who leads post-election. Ultimately, the election is expected to be decided by narrow margins, focusing on voter turnout, parties near the electoral threshold, and post-election maneuvering to form a government.