Final Election Poll Shows 'Change Bloc' Gaining Strength
Translated & summarized from N12 by baba
A final pre-election poll by Channel 12 shows Gadi Eisenkot's Yisrael party as the largest with 23 mandates, while Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud gains two seats for 21. The bloc opposing Netanyahu is projected to reach 70 mandates, strengthening its position. Two parties, Am Israel and Reservists-Economic, are predicted to fall below the electoral threshold. The poll also indicates a preference for a "change bloc" government over Netanyahu's, with the economy cited as the top voter concern.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Gadi Eisenkot's Yisrael party leads final election poll with 23 mandates.
- Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud gains two mandates, reaching 21 seats.
- The bloc opposing Netanyahu is projected to secure 70 mandates.
- Ofer Winter's and Yoaz Hendel's parties are expected to fall below the electoral threshold.
- 46% of respondents prefer a government led by the 'change bloc'.
- The economy and cost of living are cited as the top voter concern.
A final pre-election poll conducted by Channel 12 indicates a strengthening of the "change bloc" opposing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with Gadi Eisenkot's Yisrael party emerging as the largest single party. The poll, released on Friday, shows the Yisrael party securing 23 mandates, maintaining its previous standing. The Likud party, led by Netanyahu, is projected to gain two mandates, reaching 21 seats. The Together party, led by Naftali Bennett, is expected to hold steady with 15 mandates, while Yair Golan's Democrats would gain one mandate for a total of 10. The Joint List, under Yosef Jabareen, is projected to retain its 9 mandates.
Other parties' projections include Shas with 8 mandates, Yisrael Beiteinu with 8, and Otzma Yehudit also with 8. United Torah Judaism is predicted to receive 7 mandates, and Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism and Identity list is expected to get 6 mandates. Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, is projected to secure 5 mandates.
Significantly, the poll indicates that Ofer Winter's Am Israel party and Yoaz Hendel's Reservists-Economic party would fall below the electoral threshold, failing to enter the Knesset. Am Israel is polling at 2.5% and Reservists-Economic at 2.4%. The Haredi Public party and Noam Israel are also projected to be below the threshold.
The poll suggests the bloc opposing Netanyahu would collectively gain strength, reaching 70 mandates, comprising 56 from the "change bloc" parties and 14 from Arab parties. The current coalition is projected to have 50 mandates. In a direct comparison for prime minister, Eisenkot leads Netanyahu 44% to 38%, a narrowing of the gap from the previous poll. When compared to Bennett, Netanyahu and Bennett are tied at 39% each.
Regarding preferred government types, 46% of respondents favor a government led by the "change bloc," while 32% prefer a government led by Netanyahu's bloc. Only 15% desire a unity government. Among "change bloc" voters, 60% would prefer a minority government if a 61-mandate coalition without Arab parties cannot be formed, compared to 10% favoring a unity government with Likud and 20% favoring new elections.
The poll also surveyed voter priorities, with 21% citing the economy and cost of living as the most influential issue. Other key issues include the draft law and burden sharing (17%), the October 7th failures (14%), and personal security (13%). For coalition voters, the war with Iran is the top issue (21%), while for opposition voters, the October 7th failures are paramount (28%). Among Arab party voters, personal security and crime prevention is the overwhelming concern (65%). Overall, 74% of respondents indicated they would vote if elections were held today.
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