סקר המנדטים האחרון של חדשות 12 לפני הבחירות: גוש השינוי מתחזק, וינטר והנדל-זליכה מתחת לאחוז החסימה

The final Knesset election poll by Channel 12 News, released on October 26, 2026, indicates a strengthening of the "change bloc" and places Gadi Eisenkot's Yishar party as the largest with 23 mandates. The Likud, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, gains two mandates to reach 21. Naftali Bennett's Yamina party remains stable with 15 mandates, Yair Golan's Democrats gain one to 10, and the Joint List, led by Yosef Jabareen, holds steady at 9 mandates.

Other parties' projected results include Shas (Aryeh Deri) with 8 mandates, Yisrael Beiteinu (Avigdor Lieberman) with 8, and Otzma Yehudit (Itamar Ben-Gvir) gaining to 8. United Torah Judaism (Yaakov Asher) is projected to receive 7 mandates, and Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism and Identity list gets 6. Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, is expected to secure 5 mandates.

Notably, Ofer Winter's Am Israel party and Yoaz Hendel's Reservists-Economic party fall below the electoral threshold. Am Israel receives 2.5% of the vote, and Reservists-Economic receives 2.4%, keeping them out of the next Knesset. Other parties failing to pass the threshold include Haredi Public (Moti Leitner) with 0.5% and Noam for Israel (Avi Maoz) with 0.5%.

The poll shows the bloc opposing Netanyahu consolidating power, reaching 70 mandates, a gain from previous polls. This bloc comprises 56 mandates from the "Zionist change bloc" parties and 14 from Arab parties. The current coalition bloc is projected to have 50 mandates, with a "third bloc" falling below the threshold.

In a head-to-head comparison for prime minister, Eisenkot leads Netanyahu by 44% to 38%, a narrowing of the gap from 11% in the previous poll. When comparing Bennett and Netanyahu, both receive 39% of the vote. Netanyahu also leads Avigdor Lieberman 40% to 28%.

Regarding preferred government composition, 46% of respondents favor a government led by the change bloc, while 32% prefer Netanyahu's bloc. Only 15% desire a unity government. Among change bloc voters, 60% prefer a minority government if a 61-mandate coalition cannot be formed without Arab parties, while 10% favor a unity government with the Likud, and 20% prefer new elections.

Overall, 53% of respondents are optimistic about the election results, compared to 26% who are pessimistic. The economy and cost of living are cited as the most influential issues for voters (21%), followed by the draft law and burden sharing (17%), and the October 7th failures (14%).